分析：BTC短期持有者成本线死叉形成，市场交易热情骤降
BlockBeats 消息，5 月 27 日，分析师 Murphy 指出，BTC 的短期持有者实现价格（STH-RP）与 TMMP 指标在纠缠近 20 天后，已实质性形成「死叉」形态，即红线正式下穿绿线。从历史规律看死叉一旦形成，BTC 价格往往在较长一段时间内被 STH-RP 红线压制而难以突破，甚至可能创出新低。而当前 STH-RP 红线几乎走成一条直线，说明市场短期活跃度已降至冰点，在这一平均成本线上下两端的筹码均不愿参与换手，与此前关于交易热情骤降的判断一致。
不过与过往周期显著不同的是，此次 STH-RP 下穿斜率几乎为零。斜率越陡峭，意味着高位筹码恐慌割肉的意愿越强，价格突破阻力便越困难；而当前近乎平坦的走势表明抛压并不强烈，上方压制或许不会像历史案例那样难以逾越。尽管如此，STH-RP 仍是判断情绪牛熊的分界线，价格运行于其下方即短期偏空，后续方向仍需交给时间验证。
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
Replies
Related Flash News
Analyst: During a market downturn, some funds are secretly accumulating altcoins
Hyperscale Data增持7.68枚BTC，总持仓达699.68枚
Coinbase's Bitcoin Premium Index has recorded negative values for 13 consecutive days, with weak purchasing power in the U.S. market
South Korea's cryptocurrency trading volume shrank to one-tenth of that of the KOSPI
IBIT's $1.3 billion dark pool deal sparks heated discussion: "institutional exit" or "market maturity"?
The three-month rally in the BTC/Gold ratio has come to an end, and funds are flowing back into gold ETFs
Analyst: $1.3 billion IBIT mass sell-off may cause a short-term sharp drop in Bitcoin
Bitunix Analyst: Hormuz shipping briefly recovers; the market's real concern is the "global liquidity shock after the ceasefire fails."
The HYPE spot ETF absorbed 1.04% of its market cap in 10 trading days, marking the strongest debut in crypto ETF history
Micron's 24-hour contract trading volume on the chain surpassed $1 billion, with open interest surging 45.72%, indicating the concentration of bullish forces
