摩根大通：标普500指数明年年中有望升至9000点，历史规律却警示高回报难以持续
BlockBeats 消息，5 月 25 日，摩根大通在最新报告中表示，虽然这并非其基准情景，但在科技资本开支周期延续、AI 相关盈利贡献扩大及市场风险偏好改善的推动下，标普 500 指数有望在 2027 年年中升至 9000 点。
该机构认为，市场当前可能低估了这一上行情景的概率。若指数升至 9000 点，将意味着较当前水平仍有约两成上涨空间。报告称，科技、媒体与电信板块仍是推动指数进一步上行的核心变量，尤其是 AI 投资能否持续转化为企业收入与利润增长，将决定美股能否进入下一轮上行阶段。
不过市场内部观点存在明显分歧，华尔街主流观点认为，美股自 3 月低点快速反弹后，短期大概率进入震荡整理阶段。全球债券收益率持续走高，会抑制居民消费与企业投资，进而拖累经济增速。伊朗局势引发的能源冲击推升通胀、抬高燃油售价，也成为各国央行重点关注的风险因素。
此外，从历史走势规律来看，连续多年高回报的行情难以长期延续。SimCorp 投资决策研究董事总经理梅利莎・布朗（Melissa Brown）援引市场长期统计数据指出，1926 年至今，美股仅有三次实现连续四年年化收益超 15%，此类行情十分罕见。
布朗还指出，在市场连续三年年化收益超 20% 后，第四年平均回报率仅为 3.9%，远低于 11.8% 的历史平均水平。她坦言，历史数据无法绝对决定今年走势，AI 相关板块依旧具备拉动大盘走强的潜力。但倘若今年确实实现两位数的低增长，明年市场继续冲高的可能性会进一步下降。
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