Lei06
Lei06
Crypto Market Participants & Web3 Content Creators. Study on-chain data, track hot narratives, and make transactions that you can understand. I believe that good content requires patience just like good positions.
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LAB today $4.927, UTC intraday +4.88%, 24h +15.24%, high touched $5.077.
First, let's talk about the most peculiar numerical pattern tracking LAB in this series:
Long-short ratio latest 10 periods curve:
27.13% → 26.90% → 27.78% → 28.48% → 29.21% → 29.70% → 28.53% → 29.33% → 29.21% → 28.76% (latest)
Short positions 71.24% — still the most extreme short target in this series.
But Taker:
1.0803 → 0.9974 → 1.0407 → 1.3390 → 1.2210 → 1.1452 → 1.1909 → 1.1635 → 1.0944 → 1.1252 (latest)
9 out of 10 periods exceed 1.0.
Only the 2nd period (0.9974) is slightly below 1.0, the rest are all active buyers sweeping orders.
The 4th period was the most aggressive: 1.3390 — in that period, buyers were 33.9% more active than sellers.
This is the longest continuous stretch of Taker exceeding 1.0 since this series started tracking LAB.
On the OI side:
Open Interest contract volume 10-period high 23,055,896
Open Interest USD 10-period high $109.52M
Implied average entry price ≈ $109.52M ÷ 23,055,896 ≈ $4.751, current price $4.927
Short accounts (71.24%) entered around $4.75, currently floating loss about -3.7% today.
Long accounts (28.76%) entered around $4.75, currently floating profit about +3.7% today.
The contradiction lies here:
71% of accounts chose to short, but the active order sweeping has always been by buyers — indicating shorts are passive limit orders, longs are actively attacking. More passive people, but the active ones are fierce.
Long logic:
Taker exceeded 1.0 for 9 consecutive periods, buyers are not passively accepting but actively chasing — momentum is on the long side. 71% shorts = 71% potential forced short covering power, once price continues upward, short stop losses will accelerate the rally.
Entry: $4.75-$4.85 pullback (near implied average price support)
Targets: $5.20 / $5.50
Stop loss: $4.40 (below 24h low $4.087 with buffer zone)
Short logic:
71% short accounts are not without reason — $5.077 high was rejected once, $5.00 is a psychological resistance, short-term +15% gain, profit-taking demand exists.
Entry: $5.00-$5.10 rebound resistance zone short
Targets: $4.50 / $4.20
Stop loss: $5.30 valid breakout
Most dangerous move today: naked short near $5.00.
Short accounts are the majority, but Taker has continuously told you for 9 periods that the active attackers are not shorts. Until Taker reverses, every naked short is walking straight into a sustained 9-period active buyer sweep.
Fear & Greed: 47 (Neutral)
LAB's contradiction today: 71% accounts short, but Taker 9/10 periods exceed 1.0, buyers active; $5.00 is key — if broken, short covering accelerates; if not, short-term accumulated longs face profit-taking pressure.
$LAB

ETH today $2,327.
One number: Long ratio, 68.19%.
Two days ago in this series, the ETH long extreme was 72.86% — "14 sessions of one-sided expansion, Takers shifting from passive to active."
Today's 10-session curve:
72.86% → 72.58% → 70.90% → 70.64% → 70.34% → 70.23% → 70.13% → 69.48% → 68.52% → 68.19%
10 consecutive sessions of decline, down 4.67 percentage points.
But the price is higher than on the day it was 72.86%.
Long positions are quietly decreasing, but the price hasn't dropped — this is a form of tension.
Short logic: 68% longs represent an extremely crowded long structure. Every batch of longs reduced means a group of people turning from buyers to sellers or exiting. If the long ratio continues to slide below 65%, this reduction pressure will gradually turn into price pressure. Key observation point: Will the long ratio accelerate below 65%?
Long logic: The price hasn't fallen along with the declining long ratio — indicating the current position structure is still supporting the price. If the long ratio stops falling around 68%, it signals longs are holding at a high level. Key observation point: Will $2,298 (24h low) hold?
Reason not to chase: When both logics hold true, it's time to wait, not to act impulsively.
Fear & Greed: 47 (Neutral), moving from Fear into Neutral.
Strategy in one sentence: Longs at 68% are still extremely crowded, but the price is holding — now is not the time to rush, wait for the direction to emerge first. $ETH

[An Ethereum OG Transfers 52,000 ETH to a New Address After 3 Years of Silence]
On May 9, according to lookonchain monitoring, an Ethereum OG address, silent for 3 years, transferred all 52,170 ETH (approximately $120.61 million) to a new wallet 4 hours ago. This address had withdrawn 42,572 ETH from Kraken 6 years ago, when the ETH price was only $246, with a total value of about $10.48 million.
$ETH

Tonight's leaderboard has one thing worth mentioning separately:
The biggest gainer is not the hottest today.
SAHARA is up 26.49% today, ranking first in gains.
But if you look at the trading volume, SAHARA is ¥591 million, while BILL is ¥942 million—the highest trading volume belongs to BILL, not SAHARA.
What does this mean?
One possibility is: SAHARA's 26% gain today was pushed up by a small group in a thin liquidity environment—few participants, but a sharp price increase.
Another possibility is: BILL has appeared on this leaderboard many times, with a group continuously following it, bringing nearly ¥1 billion in trading volume each time it appears—BILL's popularity relies not on a single-day surge but on consistent returns.
If you only look at today's gains, you'll notice SAHARA.
If you look at the past three days, you'll see BILL has been consistently present.
These two "discoveries" reflect two different participation logics:
One is chasing the new, the sudden 26% surge today;
The other is tracking, following the familiar face that repeatedly appears on the leaderboard.
Both logics are active on this leaderboard today.
Which one you choose is really asking yourself: what kind of opportunity do you want to chase?
SAHARA is the top gainer today at +26.49%, but BILL leads in trading volume at ¥942 million—the biggest gainer is not the hottest; the hottest is the one that keeps appearing. $SAHARA $BILL $CORE

Yesterday, when writing about BTC, I used this message:
"CoinTelegraph headline: Bitcoin stalls as BTC ETF outflows hit $268M"
Translation: BTC is stalling, with a single-day ETF net outflow of $268 million, institutions are pulling money out.
Today, from the same CoinTelegraph, another article was published:
"Spot Bitcoin ETFs log 6th straight week of net inflows for first time in 9 months"
Translation: BTC spot ETFs have had net inflows for 6 consecutive weeks, marking the longest continuous inflow record in 9 months.
Two articles, same media outlet, same ETF market, less than 24 hours apart.
One says: institutions are outflowing.
The other says: institutions are continuously inflowing, and it's the strongest inflow momentum in 9 months.
This is not a contradiction; it's a matter of the time window.
From a daily perspective: on a certain day, some institutions locked in profits, resulting in a single-day ETF net outflow of $268M — this is a fact.
From a weekly perspective: for 6 consecutive weeks, each week's net flow has been positive, with no net outflow weeks in that period — this is also a fact.
Both things can be true simultaneously.
A $268M outflow in one day happens within the context of a 6-week continuous net inflow. It's like a pebble going uphill on a downhill path — you step on that stone and feel like you're going up; but looking at the whole path, it's going down. Or vice versa: you're walking uphill, but one step slips and you feel like you're sinking; looking at the whole path, you're climbing up.
Today's BTC ETF is the latter.
Let's put the numbers out:
9 months ago, the last time BTC spot ETFs had a similar continuous net inflow was summer 2025 — then, there were 7 consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling $7.57 billion. How far BTC's price moved after that continuous inflow, this series does not predict, but that history can be checked.
Today it's 6 consecutive weeks.
Not yet 7 consecutive weeks. But 6 consecutive weeks itself is a signal not seen in 9 months.
Yesterday's conclusion in this series was: "Retail investors quietly increased longs in contracts, institutions were pulling out via ETFs — $80K is the intersection point for both sides."
Today, part of that conclusion needs updating:
From a single-day view, institutions did outflow yesterday. From a weekly view, over the past 6 weeks, institutions have been net inflowing, and the persistence of inflows is the strongest in 9 months.
The "divergence" between retail and institutions may not be as large as written yesterday — at least on the weekly scale, institutions are not retreating but continuously entering.
Jack Mallers said something today that can be added here as a footnote:
"If Wall Street coming in could 'kill' BTC, then BTC was never worth succeeding from the start."
The subtext of this sentence is: Wall Street coming in is inevitable; the way and timeline of entry can be discussed, but the fact of "coming in" itself is already happening.
6 consecutive weeks of net inflows is the quantitative version of this fact.
Daily perspective $268M outflow, weekly perspective 6 consecutive weeks of net inflows marking the longest in 9 months — same ETF market, different perspectives, opposite conclusions; 9 months ago, that 7 consecutive weeks of inflows corresponded to $7.57 billion, today is the 6th week, the story is not finished yet. $BTC

【Trader Loracle Tops Hyperliquid Profit Rankings with $11 Million Weekly Earnings from Early Long Positions in ZEC and TON】
On May 9, according to Coinbob's popular address monitoring, on-chain trader Loracle earned over $11 million in profits in the past seven days, rising to the top of Hyperliquid's weekly profit leaderboard. The main sources of profit were long positions in ZEC and TON, as well as short positions in crude oil, with both US and Brent crude shorts precisely closed at the low points two days ago.
Currently, the largest profit positions in the account are a ZEC long (valued at $20.9 million) and a TON long (valued at $9.6 million), with combined profits of $9.7 million, and no reductions in these positions so far. It is reported that Loracle has simultaneously become the largest long holder of ZEC and TON and the largest short holder of HYPE on Hyperliquid, with a total account position exceeding $100 million.
The latest operation is a 3x leveraged base long position in AZTEC, with an average entry price of $0.0246. Address: 0x8def9f50456c6c4e37fa5d3d57f108ed23992dae$BTC

The previous article in this series discussed BSB, concluding:
"Long-short ratio (10 periods of 4h): 52.78% → 55.18% — For the first time in this series, the long position ratio of a single asset has almost steadily increased in nearly every period over 10 periods, not a spike, but a gradual expansion."
Today, I pulled out a new 10-period window. The first 4 periods continue from the previous article, then something happened that has never occurred since this series started tracking BSB:
54.32% → 54.01% → 54.71% → 55.18% → 54.31% → 50.63% → 50.71% → 51.98% → 55.92% → 57.93%
Period 6: 50.63%
This is the lowest long position ratio since this series began tracking BSB — also the closest to the 50% equilibrium line, just 0.63 percentage points away.
In the previous article about TON, there was a sentence: "TON long-short ratio 50.79%, approaching the 50% equilibrium line — is it holding, or will it fail?"
Today, BSB gave a more extreme version than TON: 50.63%, even closer to the equilibrium line than TON's 50.79%.
But BSB held.
After the 50.63% in period 6: 50.71% → 51.98% → 55.92% → 57.93%
Four consecutive periods of rebound, ultimately pushing to 57.93% — an absolute new high for the long position ratio since this series started tracking BSB, surpassing the previous conclusion's 55.18%.
From 50.63% to 57.93%, a one-sided rebound of 7.30 percentage points.
This is not a "slow climb," but a U-shaped curve — first dropping, holding the equilibrium line, then quickly recovering and reaching a new high.
What happened behind this U-shape?
Let's look at the implied prices:
Period 4 (latest in previous article): implied $0.606, current price $0.6031, basically matching.
Period 5: implied $0.664 (price rising)
Period 6 (long 50.63% extreme): implied $0.741 (highest price, fewest longs)
Periods 7-9: implied $0.639 → $0.576 → $0.527 (price falling, from $0.74 down to $0.53)
Period 10 (latest): implied $0.556, current price $0.5447
This is the most insightful part of today's curve:
When BSB rose to $0.741, the long position ratio dropped to 50.63% — indicating that near the highest price point, the new positions entering the market were almost evenly split between shorts and longs, with shorts slightly in the majority.
In other words: at BSB's most expensive point, the number of short sellers was almost equal to the number of long buyers.
Then the price fell from $0.741 to $0.527 — a drop of -28.9%.
During this process, the long-short ratio rose from 50.63% to 55.92% (period 9) — indicating that during the price decline, a group of new longs quietly entered, building positions at lower prices.
The latest period is 57.93%, price $0.556 — these longs who entered around $0.53-$0.56 are currently showing a slight unrealized loss (implied average price $0.556 vs current price $0.5447, about -2.1%).
But they did not enter at the highest point. They came in after the price dropped nearly 30%.
This is a recurring pattern observed in this series: the highest price point is when shorts are most concentrated, and after the price falls, longs quietly accumulate.
Placing today's BSB 57.93% on the long position ratio axis of this series:
LAB: 28.36% (shorts dominate)
BTC: 44.10%
TON: 50.79%
BSB: 57.93% (latest today)
DOGS: about 55%
NOT: 65.50%
BILL: 58.81%
ETH: 72.86% (series extreme)
BSB's 57.93% today has surpassed DOGS' historical midpoint and is almost level with BILL's latest 58.81% — no longer "mid-upper range," but already in the "long-dominant zone" at a high level.
Long-short ratio U-shaped curve: 55.18% → 50.63% (almost broke equilibrium line) → 57.93% (series high) — the previous article showed a slow climb, today tested the equilibrium line, held it, then ended higher; shorts were most concentrated at the highest price point, and after the price fell, longs accumulated. $BSB $CHIP $LAB

