Lei06

Stopping in the middle of the road, what kind of move is this? This is going viral now 😱

This series writing about BTC shows the long-short ratio data has been slowly climbing: In the previous articles about BTC, the long ratio was 39.56%, the highest in the series at that time. The last article recorded 43.07%, setting a new series high again. Today's latest 6 periods of 4h complete arcs: 43.63% → 43.67% → 43.74% → 43.92% → 43.86% → 44.10% 44.10% — this is the absolute new high for the proportion of long accounts in the contract market since this series started tracking BTC. From 39.56% to 44.10%, every time BTC is written about, the long-short ratio keeps rising — behind this is a group of people who, in the $79K to $80K range, each period sees more accounts choosing the long direction. In these 6 periods, the short ratio dropped from 56.37% to 55.90% — shorts still dominate, but the majority is shrinking. Now, put this number together with another event that happened on the same day: CoinTelegraph's headline today: "Bitcoin stalls as BTC ETF outflows hit $268M: Will new Fed chair restore the rally?" In plain language: BTC is stalling, ETF net outflows hit $268 million in a single day, institutions are pulling money out. On the same day, at the same price ($80,377), two opposite directional events occurred: In the contract market, retail/small and medium accounts' long ratio hit a new high during the tracking period (44.10%). In the ETF market, institutional investors had a net outflow of $268M. This is the most obvious divergence in position direction between retail and institutions since this series started writing about BTC. This kind of divergence has a reference in this series: Previously wrote: "Fear & Greed 38 (retail sentiment), but institutions are adding positions" — at that time, institutions were more optimistic than retail. Today is a different kind of divergence: retail quietly adding longs in contracts, institutions withdrawing from ETFs. Which side is "smarter" is a question this series never answers. But one detail worth noting: the $268M net outflow is not a small amount; it is a relatively large single-day net outflow in the BTC ETF market. The subtitle of that CoinTelegraph article is: "weak DXY and the eventual appointment of a new Fed chair could resume the rally" — meaning if the dollar weakens and a new Fed chair is appointed, the rally might resume. "Might resume" indicates today's consensus is: no rise for now. BTC at $80,377, contract longs at a series high of 44.10%, but ETF single-day net outflow of $268M — at the same price, retail is adding longs, institutions are withdrawing; $80K has been reached, but there is a big question mark about this "holding steady." #非农数据连续超出预期：降息预期走低 $BTC

Today, CORE broke this convention. Long-short ratio: No data. OI contract volume and USD: No data. Taker buy-sell ratio: No data. OKX is the main battlefield. BSB: OI $3.41 million, market cap/liquidity 858x, a "liquidity trap." NOT: OI $5.82 million, classified as "thin order book, data conservatively interpreted." These assets are thin, but there is still data. This indicates one thing: today's CORE +18.21% rise was not driven by accumulation and hedging of contract positions, but purely by spot market narrative. No amplification effect from long-short battles, no push from aggressive Taker buying, no trend confirmation from OI expansion—what exists is simply a group of people who believe CORE is worth buying, acting in the spot market. This rise has a feature that other assets in this series do not: it lacks "position gaming" as a supporting structure. Position gaming in the contract market acts as an amplifier for the uptrend and also as an anchor—the longs take profits during the rise, shorts are forced to stop loss during the rise, this two-way friction provides some price stability. CORE's rise lacks this layer of friction. When it rises, it can be faster and more intense than assets supported by contract markets—when BILL first entered, OI exploded +59.3%, a typical case of contract amplification. But CORE has none of this; it is purely "more buyers than sellers." This also means on the downside, there is no contract position buffer—no short covering to support the price, nor natural clearing mechanisms from long stop-losses being triggered. This is the first time in this series—but this is not data absence, it is a true reflection of CORE's market structure: purely spot narrative-driven, no contract amplification, no position anchor, and today's +18.21% is the most direct expression of this structure. $CORE

BILL opened today at $0.0719 UTC, current price $0.0976, up +35.63% intraday UTC. When I last wrote about BILL, the price was $0.0863, up +20.33% intraday UTC. Today is higher than last time—+35.63%, already close to $0.10, with a 24h high touching $0.0990. By this logic, with a higher price, there should be more bulls and more confidence—but the bull-bear ratio dropped from 61.23% back to 58.81%. This is the clearest validation of the "sell more as it rises" structure since tracking the BILL series: Phase 1: 68.74%, corresponding to the entry cost range at that time; Today: 58.81%, price about +12% higher than Phase 1; Price rose, but the proportion of bulls decreased—in BILL’s case, price increases are a reason for bulls to exit, not to enter. Putting the full 9-phase curve together, plus today’s price: Phase 1: 68.74% (series extreme, entry price around $0.073) Phases 2-7: continuous decline over 7 phases, down to 56.29% Phase 8: rebound to 61.23% (new bulls entering around $0.086) Phase 9: fell back to 58.81% (price $0.0976, +35.63%, continuing to sell) The shape of this curve increasingly points to the same conclusion: each batch of bulls, after gaining sufficient profit, chooses to exit rather than add positions. The conclusion from two posts ago: "The ¥855 million position left is bullish, but not long-term holders." Today’s conclusion has been confirmed in three batches: the first batch (Phases 1-7), the second batch (Phase 8), and the third batch currently happening in Phase 9. Up to today, the bulls in the BILL series have only done one thing: enter, price rises, exit. Then the next batch enters, price rises, exits. One question worth raising here today: How many more cycles will this continue? From 56.29% (lowest) to 61.23% (rebound) and back to 58.81% (decline), the fluctuation range is narrowing—not the extreme 68.74% of Phase 1, but consuming between 55%-62%. This kind of consumption has been seen in another version in this series: LAB bears repeatedly battling in the 72.80%→73.45%→70% range, exhausting to an extreme before triggering a flash crash. BILL now has bulls repeatedly consuming in the 56%-62% range. 61.23% only lasted one phase, today falling back to 58.81%—the "sell more as it rises" structure still holds against the backdrop of a +35.63% price new stage high; each batch of bulls is repeating the same script. Consumption continues, but the fluctuation range is narrowing. $BILL

$80,000. This number has been discussed countless times over the past month. It has fallen below, then bounced back. It has risen above, then dropped again. Today, BTC is still hovering around it—neither rising nor falling, just circling. This is no coincidence. Today, the US employment data was released, exceeding expectations—in other words, the US economy is still doing okay, not that bad. This news made the Nasdaq rise and cheered the stock market for a while. But BTC didn’t move. Not because the news was bad. It’s because two things are canceling each other out: On one side, some think "Good economy → stock market rises → risk appetite returns → BTC should rise"; On the other side, some think "Good economy → Fed doesn’t need to rush to cut rates → liquidity remains tight → why should BTC rise?" Both logics make sense at the same time, so BTC is stuck around $80,000, with neither side convincing the other, just stalling. This kind of stalling is actually the most frustrating—not the thrilling pain of a crash, but the discomfort of "I don’t know what to do." Analysts have already started saying: BTC is at a three-month high, and short-term holders are likely beginning to take profits. In plain terms, this means those who entered early are approaching the point where they need to consider whether to exit. And while they’re considering whether to sell, Wall Street institutions are quietly moving in. Two groups, opposite directions, $80,000 is their meeting point. Above $80K, institutions are buying; below it, retail investors are thinking about selling—this is the real reason BTC is circling here today. $BTC

First time writing about BILL, with two sentences: "The long position ratio for BILL Phase 1 is 68.74%, the highest value tracked in this series. But it dropped to 65.70% within 8 hours, a 3.04 percentage point loss indicating that the longs are more short-term oriented." "The ¥855 million worth of positions left are longs, but not long-term holders." Today, releasing the full curve for 8 phases: 68.74% → 65.70% → 62.74% → 61.78% → 58.90% → 58.26% → 56.29% → 61.23% (latest) From 68.74% to 56.29%, there have been 7 consecutive declining periods, a drop of 12.45 percentage points. This is the largest and longest single-direction decline in the long ratio for any asset tracked in this series without a price crash background. Placing this decline on the series' coordinate axis: ETH's long ratio rose from 71.93% to 72.86%, a 14-phase single-direction increase—this is a "buying the dip" structure. BILL's long ratio dropped from 68.74% to 56.29%, a 7-phase single-direction decline—this is a "selling into the rally" structure. Despite a +20.33% price increase, the long ratio kept falling—indicating that during this rise, previous longs have been taking profits and exiting, shorts have been building positions while prices rise, or the rate of long position loss exceeds the rate of new longs entering. This aligns perfectly with the conclusion from the first article: the batch of longs remaining in the ¥855 million volume are short-term, entering quickly and exiting quickly. However, there is a signal in the latest phase that needs separate interpretation: Phase 8 (latest): 61.23% After 7 consecutive declines, the long ratio rebounded from 56.29% to 61.23%, a rise of 4.94 percentage points. This is the first reversal since BILL has been tracked in this series—previous 7 phases each lower than the last; the latest phase changes direction. There are two possible explanations for this rebound: 1. New longs entering: UTC opened at $0.07192, current price $0.0863, a +20.33% increase attracting new longs, causing the long ratio to rise. 2. Short stop-loss exits: during BILL's rapid rise, previously established shorts were forced to close (short covering = active buying), adjusting the long-short ratio towards longs. Considering OI data: Phase 7 OI contract volume surged from 24,558,164 to 39,109,767 (+59.3%)—if it were short stop-loss, OI should contract, not surge. The surge indicates a large influx of new positions, not clearing old ones. Phase 7 long ratio 56.29%, latest phase rebound to 61.23%—direction is long, incremental positions are mostly long, price is rising, Taker (Phase 7 at 0.9781) is still slightly seller-dominant. This combination favors the first explanation: new longs entered around $0.089, pushing up the long ratio. But can the rebound from 56.29% to 61.23% continue? The first article's conclusion was "enter fast, exit fast"—the new longs entering at $0.089 are currently at an unrealized loss of about -3.0% (current price $0.0863 vs entry $0.089). If prices continue downward, they may be candidates for the next wave of exits, like the previous batch. 68.74%→56.29%→61.23%—the first rebound after 7 consecutive declines is the mark left by new longs entering around $0.089; but the conclusion that "short-term longs are not long-term residents" now points to this new batch of longs. $BILL

Don't laugh, you're not young anymore😱

Last night I wrote about ETH, with two sentences: "71.93% — This is the absolute highest bullish ratio since this series started tracking all targets." "Taker: Only in the 2nd period out of 10 did it exceed 1.0 (1.1966), the following 8 periods were all below 1.0, with an average of about 0.88 — sellers have been actively hitting, bulls have been passively receiving." Today, both sentences have been updated. Latest bull-bear ratio: 72.86% bulls / 27.14% bears 71.93% has been surpassed. Again. This is the second time the ETH bullish ratio has broken the series record since tracking began — the previous article updated BILL’s 68.74%, today it surpassed the previous 71.93%. Here’s the 10-period curve: 66.05% → 68.51% → 68.55% → 68.69% → 70.93% → 71.93% → 72.33% → 72.12% → 72.60% → 72.86% These 10 periods cover about 40 hours. Over 40 hours, the bullish ratio rose from 66.05% to 72.86%, an increase of 6.81 percentage points, with the direction almost never changing — the 8th period at 72.12% was the only slight pullback, but the 9th period immediately returned to 72.60%, and the 10th period pushed higher to 72.86%. If we combine the previous 10 periods with today’s 10 periods, ETH’s bullish ratio has continuously risen for over 14 consecutive 4-hour cycles (more than 56 hours) — climbing from 60.80% all the way to 72.86%, a cumulative increase of 12.06 percentage points. This is the longest duration and largest magnitude of one-directional bullish expansion among all targets tracked in this series. But the most important signal today is not the bullish ratio number, it’s the structural turning point in the Taker: Taker 9th period: 1.1106 Taker latest period (10th): 1.0203 The previous conclusion was: "Sellers have been actively hitting, bulls have been passively receiving." Today, this conclusion no longer fully holds. Taker exceeded 1.0 for two consecutive periods (9th and 10th) — buyers have started actively sweeping orders. Moreover, the 1.1106 in the 9th period is the second highest Taker value since this series started tracking ETH (the highest in previous data was an early 1.1966). "Passive reception" is a defensive structure: bulls place orders and wait for the price to drop to their target, passively filling. "Active buying" is an offensive structure: bulls no longer wait, actively sweeping sell orders in the market. From passive reception to active buying — this is a directional change in ETH bulls’ behavior that happened today. Price during the same period: UTC intraday -0.39%. Previous ETH price was -2.62%, today -0.39% — price moved from a sharp decline to near flat. Bullish ratio continues to hit new highs, Taker shifts from seller dominance to buyer initiative, price narrows from -2.62% to -0.39% — three aligned signals telling the same story: ETH’s position battle has entered a new round today. Bulls are no longer just passively waiting, they are starting to actively strike. Fear & Greed remains at 38 (Fear) — sentiment hasn’t changed, but behavior has. 72.86%, series record broken again; Taker exceeded 1.0 for two consecutive periods; ETH bulls shifted from passive reception to active buying; price narrowed from -2.62% to -0.39% — after 56 hours of "buying the dip," today signals bulls beginning to take initiative. $ETH

Previous article on TON: "Latest long-short ratio 51.87% — TON is the first asset in this series where 'bull dominance is the normal state,' sharply contrasting with BTC's 34%. The logic behind maintaining bull dominance is the ecosystem binding narrative of a major social platform with 1 billion users." Today, I pulled the complete 10-period arc and the changes in the long-short ratio: 53.80% → 53.02% → 51.86% → 51.87% → 52.08% → 52.55% → 53.80% → 52.88% → 50.92% → 50.79% 10-period highest: 53.80% (1st and 7th periods, appeared twice) 10-period lowest: 50.79% (latest period) Fluctuation range: 3.01 percentage points This range itself is not large — slightly wider than NOT's 1.90 percentage points, but extremely narrow compared to ETH's 11.13 percentage points — but the direction is noteworthy: From the 7th period's 53.80% (second peak) to the latest 50.79%, there is a continuous decline over three periods: 53.80% → 52.88% → 50.92% → 50.79%, a drop of 3.01 percentage points, the most continuous and sustained decline in these 10 periods. 50.79% — only 0.79 percentage points away from the 50% equilibrium line. Before TON in this series, there was a story about the equilibrium line: In the DOGS article: "Bulls 51.52% first time surpassing bulls — they bet on the top and lost." DOGS' equilibrium line fluctuated around 51-52% multiple times. TON's 50.79% today is the first time since writing about TON in this series that it approaches the equilibrium line — not like DOGS where it crossed the equilibrium line and bears briefly flipped to bulls, but it hasn't broken through yet, just at the doorstep. Price at the same time: UTC intraday -6.22%, falling from $2.715 to $2.546. The previous TON article was written when UTC intraday was +9.92%, today it is -6.22% — a complete reversal in price direction between the two articles. But there is a Taker signal that is opposite to the direction of the declining long-short ratio: Latest Taker: 1.0796 — the highest value in these 10 periods. Over the 10 periods, Taker generally leaned towards buyer aggression, with only two periods clearly biased to sellers (1st period 0.9553, 5th period 0.9118). The latest period's 1.0796 shows the most aggressive buyers — indicating that during the price drop from $2.809 to $2.546, a group was actively buying up. They are buying at a point where the bull ratio is sliding toward the equilibrium line. This has a slight resemblance to ETH's "buying more as it falls" structure — but ETH's Taker rebound happened at a bull extreme of 71.93%; TON's Taker rebound happens at the 50.79% equilibrium line edge. Two different bull ratio magnitudes, same active buyer behavior. TON's long-short ratio at 50.79%, approaching the 50% equilibrium line — something never seen since writing about TON in this series, with a continuous three-period decline from 53.80%; Taker at 1.0796 is the strongest in this window, active buyers appear at the edge of the equilibrium line. Are they holding the line, or will they fail? $TON

This series has covered many types of bullish ratio structures: TON type: The 10-period fluctuation range is only 3.28 percentage points (51.83%-55.11%), with a stable high bullish level, like a horizontal line. NOT type: 10-period fluctuation of 1.90 percentage points (64.86%-66.76%), extremely stable, almost a straight line. LAB type: Bullish 27-33%, dominated by bears, narrow low-level oscillation within 10 periods. BILL type: Within 2 periods, bulls dropped from 68.74% to 65.70%, a quick loss after a spike. ETH type: Within 10 periods, bulls monotonically rose from 60.80% to 71.93%—buying more as price falls, bulls continuously entering during price decline. Today, BSB shows a structure somewhat similar to ETH but with a completely different background: Long-short ratio (10 periods 4h, bullish %, old → new): 52.78% → 52.22% → 50.97% → 52.67% → 53.17% → 53.25% → 54.32% → 54.01% → 54.71% → 55.18% Over 10 periods, the bullish ratio rose from 52.78% to 55.18%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points. But unlike ETH, the rhythm is different— ETH’s bullish ratio increase is driven by "buying more as price falls," with a steep curve, accumulating 11.13 percentage points rapidly during continuous price decline. BSB’s bullish ratio increase is slow, steady, and slightly climbing each period—there was a slight dip once (period 3 at 50.97%, period 8 at 54.01%), but the direction never changed, ultimately forming an upward sloping line over 10 periods. This kind of structure has never been seen in this series before. It’s not a large influx of bulls in any single period, but a small batch of new bulls entering each period, slightly more each time, gradually reaching 55.18%. Placing BSB’s 55.18% today on this series’ coordinate axis: LAB latest period: 28.36% bulls (bear-dominated) BTC latest period: 43.07% bulls ZEC: about 38-40% bulls TON: 51.87% bulls BSB: 55.18% bulls (stable bull-dominated range, close to DOGS’ historical center) DOGS: about 55% bulls NOT: 65.50% bulls BILL: 65.70% bulls (latest period) ETH: 71.93% bulls (series extreme) BSB sits in the upper-middle position—slightly higher than TON, 10 percentage points lower than NOT. It’s not extreme, but its structure is the most "stable" bull expansion in this series: slow, continuous, without aggressive spikes. Why does BSB’s bullish ratio keep rising? Today, BSBUSDT appeared on OKX’s gainers list (+16.97%, ¥504 million volume)—BSB is now a listed asset with volume support and new funds entering. Meanwhile, on-chain data: 5,484 buy orders vs 4,865 sell orders, net buyers +619, a 6.0% buyer advantage—retail on-chain and contract market bulls are aligned today. But one detail is worth noting: Period 3 (50.97% bulls) was the only time in these 10 periods that bulls fell below 51%—in that period, the long-short ratio nearly touched the equilibrium line. If slightly more bears had entered then, BSB’s bull-dominated situation might have been broken. But it didn’t. After 50.97%, the bullish ratio climbed back period by period, finally reaching 55.18%. BSB’s bullish ratio climbed from 52.78% to 55.18% over 10 periods, marking the first time in this series that an asset’s bullish ratio has almost steadily increased each period—not a spike, but slow expansion; not one-time, but sustained over 10 periods. 👇 $BSB $TON $NOT