Phyrex.Ni

Recently, I've also been researching this direction, but I'm still somewhat a beginner, so I hope to learn from the experts. According to Teacher Wufan, the current funding rate for $CRCL on Binance is indeed ridiculously high, so arbitraging the funding rate should be a good strategy. Since it's arbitrage, it must be a relatively low-risk approach. What I currently think of is buying $100,000 worth of CRCL stock through a broker, then shorting CRCLUSDT with $100,000 at 1x leverage on Binance to capture the funding rate. This should be the most basic method, but considering the risk if CRCL surges dramatically, I will add two steps. The first is to buy OTM CALL options, for example, buying CRCL at $150, and then prepare 1.5 times the margin on Binance to guard against extreme market conditions. I plan to buy about 3 OTM CALLs, and here is a formula. For example, if I short $100,000 CRCLUSDT, the funding fee is 0.5% every 8 hours. There are three periods per day, roughly: $100,000 × 0.5% × 3 = $1,500 per day If I plan to hold for 3 days, the theoretical funding fee is approximately: $1,500 × 3 = $4,500 But the total capital I need to leverage is about $280,000. After deducting the $1,500 cost of the OTM CALLs and some miscellaneous fees, the approximate profit is around $2,800, with an actual annualized return of about 100%. If it were me, I would suggest that if friends have a $CRCL position, short-term arbitraging the funding rate is feasible. However, if you don't have a $CRCL position, this kind of arbitrage feels a bit exhausting.

Bitcoin breaks through $80,000, how are high-net-worth and small-scale investors reacting? Data shows that high-net-worth investors holding more than 10 $BTC are still maintaining an increasing trend in their holdings, and the actual increase is greater than that of small-scale investors holding less than 10 BTC. However, both high-net-worth and small-scale investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin, even as its price surpasses $80,000. Looking at more detailed data, high-net-worth investors show almost no interest in Bitcoin’s price fluctuations and remain in a buying state, even after a rollercoaster ride, they continue buying. In contrast, small-scale investors are more sensitive to short-term price changes and show clear hesitation once the price hits $80,000. This is why I have always said that more Bitcoin is gradually flowing to long-term, high-net-worth holders. #Bitget comes as VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, a one-stop global opportunity layout

In the field of prediction market startups, Chess should be one of the few entrepreneurs who can achieve results.

If you invest with a mindset of a hundredfold return over ten years, it's probably very difficult to actually achieve a hundredfold gain after ten years. Thanks to @chessxyz for the introduction, I had the privilege to meet the SIG team. Many might not know who SIG is. In March 2012, Toutiao received angel round financing of several million RMB, and SIG was the sole institutional investor. At that time, did SIG know that the Toutiao they invested in would become today's ByteDance? The SIG team told us during the review that they never thought about it; they just believed that an aggregated news engine had growth potential. That time, SIG invested $80,000. Later, at the end of 2012, SIG invested another $1 million in the A+ round and provided a $1 million bridge loan. In total, about $2.08 million. How much is that money worth now? According to FT in 2024, SIG holds about 15% of ByteDance shares, and that stake was valued at around $40 billion at that time. In other words, $2.08 million turned into $40 billion, a return close to 20,000 times. If we roughly estimate based on the $550 billion valuation rumored in the 2026 secondary market, 15% corresponds to a book value of $82.5 billion. If they had looked at it with a ten-year hundredfold mindset back then, they might not have invested at all. It's the same now. I always feel that hundredfold returns are for those who are prepared, but more importantly, it depends on luck. For a person, having one chance in life to earn tenfold on a heavy asset is already quite good. I'm not trying to be discouraging. If SIG hadn’t had $1 million back then, even if they were optimistic about Toutiao, it wouldn’t have helped. If we want to gamble on a hundredfold or even higher return, it’s either luck or sufficient knowledge and capital reserves. I always remember what my former boss told me: investing in 100 products, hitting one that succeeds can recover the losses of the other 99. But unfortunately, not only did none of those 100 succeed, the next 100 didn’t either. Luck, capital reserves, and knowledge reserves complement each other. First, work hard to earn tenfold, then consider earning another tenfold on top of that.

I don't know whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 first or drop back to $60,000 first, nor do I believe I have the ability to accurately predict short-term prices. But I do believe that in most people's lifetimes, $BTC breaking through $100,000 is not an issue. So what I'm considering now is not whether to buy BTC, but at what price to buy BTC so that the future ROI is worthwhile.

Bitcoin price exceeds $80,000, is investor selling increasing? We have looked at a lot of data around the $80,000 mark, including purchases by native crypto investors and traditional investors, examined capital inflows, and also reviewed miner data. So, after $BTC’s price surpassed $80,000, have holders started selling? From the daily Bitcoin transfers to exchanges data, the amount of BTC moved to exchanges in the past month remains at a relatively low level. This indicates that even though BTC has risen 30% from a phase bottom, profit-taking investors have not shown signs of mass selling, which also suggests that more holders currently have no intention to sell. If investors were preparing to exit, the first step would be to transfer BTC to exchanges and then find a suitable price. However, there is no such indication at present, and since March it has been quite clear that investors show little interest in preparing to sell. This further demonstrates that low prices hardly make holders surrender. Many people have been saying that if most holders don’t give up, there’s no way to push the price up, but in reality, every time BTC surges significantly, it happens when the market is heavily weighted.

Bitcoin is fluctuating around $80,000, what are the miners' choices? A tweet posted early this morning mentioned that miners are not currently selling off large amounts of their $BTC, but the overall hash rate is indeed declining. From the peak on November 11, 2025, the overall Bitcoin mining difficulty has dropped by 17.75%. The decrease in difficulty indicates that high-cost miners have started to exit or at least temporarily shut down. This time, the pressure on miners is not only from BTC price fluctuations but also from the scarcity of power resources. In the past, miners competed for cheap, wasted, or marginal electricity, with core competition focusing on mining machine efficiency and electricity costs. But now AI data centers are also competing for power, and the buyers behind AI computing power are companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, which have stronger credit, longer contracts, and higher payment capabilities. For the same unit of electricity, AI data centers can offer higher prices and more easily secure long-term stable power. This directly compresses the survival space for Bitcoin miners. The current difficulty drop superficially reflects a decline in hash rate, but fundamentally it shows that power resources are being reallocated from low value-added computing power to high value-added computing power. Miners not selling large amounts of BTC indicates they have not surrendered yet. But the decline in hash rate shows that some mining farms have already been forced to exit. In the future, the moat for mining companies will not be simply the scale of hash rate, but power resources, data center resources, grid connection capabilities, and the ability to switch between BTC mining and AI/HPC.