Lei06

Don't laugh, you're not young anymore😱

Last night I wrote about ETH, with two sentences: "71.93% — This is the absolute highest bullish ratio since this series started tracking all targets." "Taker: Only in the 2nd period out of 10 did it exceed 1.0 (1.1966), the following 8 periods were all below 1.0, with an average of about 0.88 — sellers have been actively hitting, bulls have been passively receiving." Today, both sentences have been updated. Latest bull-bear ratio: 72.86% bulls / 27.14% bears 71.93% has been surpassed. Again. This is the second time the ETH bullish ratio has broken the series record since tracking began — the previous article updated BILL’s 68.74%, today it surpassed the previous 71.93%. Here’s the 10-period curve: 66.05% → 68.51% → 68.55% → 68.69% → 70.93% → 71.93% → 72.33% → 72.12% → 72.60% → 72.86% These 10 periods cover about 40 hours. Over 40 hours, the bullish ratio rose from 66.05% to 72.86%, an increase of 6.81 percentage points, with the direction almost never changing — the 8th period at 72.12% was the only slight pullback, but the 9th period immediately returned to 72.60%, and the 10th period pushed higher to 72.86%. If we combine the previous 10 periods with today’s 10 periods, ETH’s bullish ratio has continuously risen for over 14 consecutive 4-hour cycles (more than 56 hours) — climbing from 60.80% all the way to 72.86%, a cumulative increase of 12.06 percentage points. This is the longest duration and largest magnitude of one-directional bullish expansion among all targets tracked in this series. But the most important signal today is not the bullish ratio number, it’s the structural turning point in the Taker: Taker 9th period: 1.1106 Taker latest period (10th): 1.0203 The previous conclusion was: "Sellers have been actively hitting, bulls have been passively receiving." Today, this conclusion no longer fully holds. Taker exceeded 1.0 for two consecutive periods (9th and 10th) — buyers have started actively sweeping orders. Moreover, the 1.1106 in the 9th period is the second highest Taker value since this series started tracking ETH (the highest in previous data was an early 1.1966). "Passive reception" is a defensive structure: bulls place orders and wait for the price to drop to their target, passively filling. "Active buying" is an offensive structure: bulls no longer wait, actively sweeping sell orders in the market. From passive reception to active buying — this is a directional change in ETH bulls’ behavior that happened today. Price during the same period: UTC intraday -0.39%. Previous ETH price was -2.62%, today -0.39% — price moved from a sharp decline to near flat. Bullish ratio continues to hit new highs, Taker shifts from seller dominance to buyer initiative, price narrows from -2.62% to -0.39% — three aligned signals telling the same story: ETH’s position battle has entered a new round today. Bulls are no longer just passively waiting, they are starting to actively strike. Fear & Greed remains at 38 (Fear) — sentiment hasn’t changed, but behavior has. 72.86%, series record broken again; Taker exceeded 1.0 for two consecutive periods; ETH bulls shifted from passive reception to active buying; price narrowed from -2.62% to -0.39% — after 56 hours of "buying the dip," today signals bulls beginning to take initiative. $ETH

Previous article on TON: "Latest long-short ratio 51.87% — TON is the first asset in this series where 'bull dominance is the normal state,' sharply contrasting with BTC's 34%. The logic behind maintaining bull dominance is the ecosystem binding narrative of a major social platform with 1 billion users." Today, I pulled the complete 10-period arc and the changes in the long-short ratio: 53.80% → 53.02% → 51.86% → 51.87% → 52.08% → 52.55% → 53.80% → 52.88% → 50.92% → 50.79% 10-period highest: 53.80% (1st and 7th periods, appeared twice) 10-period lowest: 50.79% (latest period) Fluctuation range: 3.01 percentage points This range itself is not large — slightly wider than NOT's 1.90 percentage points, but extremely narrow compared to ETH's 11.13 percentage points — but the direction is noteworthy: From the 7th period's 53.80% (second peak) to the latest 50.79%, there is a continuous decline over three periods: 53.80% → 52.88% → 50.92% → 50.79%, a drop of 3.01 percentage points, the most continuous and sustained decline in these 10 periods. 50.79% — only 0.79 percentage points away from the 50% equilibrium line. Before TON in this series, there was a story about the equilibrium line: In the DOGS article: "Bulls 51.52% first time surpassing bulls — they bet on the top and lost." DOGS' equilibrium line fluctuated around 51-52% multiple times. TON's 50.79% today is the first time since writing about TON in this series that it approaches the equilibrium line — not like DOGS where it crossed the equilibrium line and bears briefly flipped to bulls, but it hasn't broken through yet, just at the doorstep. Price at the same time: UTC intraday -6.22%, falling from $2.715 to $2.546. The previous TON article was written when UTC intraday was +9.92%, today it is -6.22% — a complete reversal in price direction between the two articles. But there is a Taker signal that is opposite to the direction of the declining long-short ratio: Latest Taker: 1.0796 — the highest value in these 10 periods. Over the 10 periods, Taker generally leaned towards buyer aggression, with only two periods clearly biased to sellers (1st period 0.9553, 5th period 0.9118). The latest period's 1.0796 shows the most aggressive buyers — indicating that during the price drop from $2.809 to $2.546, a group was actively buying up. They are buying at a point where the bull ratio is sliding toward the equilibrium line. This has a slight resemblance to ETH's "buying more as it falls" structure — but ETH's Taker rebound happened at a bull extreme of 71.93%; TON's Taker rebound happens at the 50.79% equilibrium line edge. Two different bull ratio magnitudes, same active buyer behavior. TON's long-short ratio at 50.79%, approaching the 50% equilibrium line — something never seen since writing about TON in this series, with a continuous three-period decline from 53.80%; Taker at 1.0796 is the strongest in this window, active buyers appear at the edge of the equilibrium line. Are they holding the line, or will they fail? $TON

This series has covered many types of bullish ratio structures: TON type: The 10-period fluctuation range is only 3.28 percentage points (51.83%-55.11%), with a stable high bullish level, like a horizontal line. NOT type: 10-period fluctuation of 1.90 percentage points (64.86%-66.76%), extremely stable, almost a straight line. LAB type: Bullish 27-33%, dominated by bears, narrow low-level oscillation within 10 periods. BILL type: Within 2 periods, bulls dropped from 68.74% to 65.70%, a quick loss after a spike. ETH type: Within 10 periods, bulls monotonically rose from 60.80% to 71.93%—buying more as price falls, bulls continuously entering during price decline. Today, BSB shows a structure somewhat similar to ETH but with a completely different background: Long-short ratio (10 periods 4h, bullish %, old → new): 52.78% → 52.22% → 50.97% → 52.67% → 53.17% → 53.25% → 54.32% → 54.01% → 54.71% → 55.18% Over 10 periods, the bullish ratio rose from 52.78% to 55.18%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points. But unlike ETH, the rhythm is different— ETH’s bullish ratio increase is driven by "buying more as price falls," with a steep curve, accumulating 11.13 percentage points rapidly during continuous price decline. BSB’s bullish ratio increase is slow, steady, and slightly climbing each period—there was a slight dip once (period 3 at 50.97%, period 8 at 54.01%), but the direction never changed, ultimately forming an upward sloping line over 10 periods. This kind of structure has never been seen in this series before. It’s not a large influx of bulls in any single period, but a small batch of new bulls entering each period, slightly more each time, gradually reaching 55.18%. Placing BSB’s 55.18% today on this series’ coordinate axis: LAB latest period: 28.36% bulls (bear-dominated) BTC latest period: 43.07% bulls ZEC: about 38-40% bulls TON: 51.87% bulls BSB: 55.18% bulls (stable bull-dominated range, close to DOGS’ historical center) DOGS: about 55% bulls NOT: 65.50% bulls BILL: 65.70% bulls (latest period) ETH: 71.93% bulls (series extreme) BSB sits in the upper-middle position—slightly higher than TON, 10 percentage points lower than NOT. It’s not extreme, but its structure is the most "stable" bull expansion in this series: slow, continuous, without aggressive spikes. Why does BSB’s bullish ratio keep rising? Today, BSBUSDT appeared on OKX’s gainers list (+16.97%, ¥504 million volume)—BSB is now a listed asset with volume support and new funds entering. Meanwhile, on-chain data: 5,484 buy orders vs 4,865 sell orders, net buyers +619, a 6.0% buyer advantage—retail on-chain and contract market bulls are aligned today. But one detail is worth noting: Period 3 (50.97% bulls) was the only time in these 10 periods that bulls fell below 51%—in that period, the long-short ratio nearly touched the equilibrium line. If slightly more bears had entered then, BSB’s bull-dominated situation might have been broken. But it didn’t. After 50.97%, the bullish ratio climbed back period by period, finally reaching 55.18%. BSB’s bullish ratio climbed from 52.78% to 55.18% over 10 periods, marking the first time in this series that an asset’s bullish ratio has almost steadily increased each period—not a spike, but slow expansion; not one-time, but sustained over 10 periods. 👇 $BSB $TON $NOT

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The conclusion of the previous article in this series about LAB was: "OI USD $107.30M hits a new high, with $78.12M being shorts — the number of contracts is decreasing, indicating longs are retreating, while the USD value is rising, driven by price increases. The short contract value rose from $67.44M to $78.12M, a +15.8% increase. That statement is even more significant today." Today, I pulled out the full curve for 10 periods, and there was an extreme value that refreshed right after the last conclusion was published: Period 5: 26.55% longs / 73.45% shorts This is the highest absolute short ratio ever recorded in this series tracking BTC, ZEC, DOGS, TON, LAB, NOT, BILL, and ETH — not just 73.45%, but it has surpassed the previous 72.80% mentioned in the last article, pushing it up by 0.65 percentage points. At the same time, OI USD was $111.04M, with 23,932,814 contracts — also a dual record high since this series started tracking LAB contracts. $111.04M × 73.45% ≈ $81.51M in short positions, the absolute highest USD value of short contracts for any asset or moment in this series. Then, something unprecedented happened in this series: a single-period OI fluctuation never seen before: Period 5: OI USD $111.04M Period 6: OI USD $77.98M Single period evaporation: -$33.06M (-29.8%) This is not a gradual reduction in positions — over a 4-hour period, more than 30% of OI disappeared. What caused $33.06M of OI to evaporate in one period? Looking at the long-short ratio: Period 5 had 73.45% shorts, Period 6 had 67.51% shorts — a decrease of 5.94 percentage points in short ratio. At the same time, contract numbers dropped from 23,932,814 to 23,401,532, a decrease of 531,282 contracts (-2.2%). But OI USD fell by 29.8% — contract numbers only decreased by 2.2%, while USD value dropped by 29.8%. This gap comes from a price collapse. Back-calculating the implied price for Period 6 from OI USD and contract numbers: $77,983,321 ÷ 23,401,532 ≈ $3.33 Implied price for Period 5: $111,042,839 ÷ 23,932,814 ≈ $4.64 From $4.64 to $3.33, in one 4-hour cycle, a -28.2% drop. This was not a slow decline, but a flash crash. During the flash crash, the short ratio dropped from 73.45% to 67.51% — indicating that the main reaction of shorts to this -28% drop was to close positions and take profits (stop profit), rather than increasing short positions. They shorted near $4.64 and closed near $3.33 to lock in profits, causing OI to plummet. But LAB is now at $4.57. After the flash crash, the price rebounded from $3.33 back to $4.57, a +37.2% increase. And in the latest period today: long-short ratio is 28.36% longs / 71.64% shorts. Shorts have climbed back to 71.64% during the price rebound from $3.33 to $4.57 — only 1.81 percentage points shy of the 73.45% extreme. These new shorts who rebuilt positions in the $3.33-$4.57 range have their stop losses set above $4.57. 73.45%, the absolute extreme in this series, appeared, triggered a $33.06M single-period OI flash crash, price hit $3.33, then rebounded 37.2%. Shorts closed positions and exited, new shorts entered, and today at 71.64%, it is just 1.81 percentage points away from the extreme. $LAB

The previous article about LAB ended with the sentence: "Out of the $107.30M positions, about 72.80% are shorts — this is the absolute highest USD value of short contracts since this series began tracking. Above $4.66, the short positions are the heaviest since this series started tracking. That statement is even more true today." Today, the long-short ratio of LAB contracts on Binance for the latest three periods (4h): 32.40% long / 67.60% short 31.59% long / 68.41% short 30.57% long / 69.43% short (latest) The short ratio dropped from 72.80% in the previous article to 69.43%, a decrease of 3.37 percentage points. This 3.37 percentage point drop corresponds to a portion of the shorts who had stop-loss orders above $4.66, which were triggered today. But the most important number today is not the long-short ratio, it’s the trading volume: ¥6.91 billion Comparing this with historical data tracked in this series for LAB: In the article before last (at $4.28), LAB’s 24h on-chain trading volume was $12,747,479 (about ¥92.47 million) Today’s OKX contract trading volume: ¥6.91 billion ¥6.91 billion vs ¥92.47 million — today’s volume is 74.7 times the on-chain volume from the previous article. Of course, these two volumes come from different markets (contracts vs on-chain spot), so the multiple is not directly comparable. But this scale of increase indicates: Today, LAB’s contract market attracted a batch of funds that were previously not on-chain to participate in this position battle. Within the ¥6.91 billion volume, what was the direction of turnover? Considering the change in the long-short ratio: shorts dropped from 72.80% to 69.43%, a decrease of 3.37 percentage points — this means a significant portion of the ¥6.91 billion volume was short position liquidations (forced or voluntary), not purely simultaneous long and short openings. But note: shorts are still the majority. 69.43% shorts vs 30.57% longs — this means: Stop-loss triggers are localized, not widespread. The drop from 72.80% to 69.43%, a 3.37 percentage point loss of shorts, corresponds to some shorts who recently opened positions around $4.66 exiting — but shorts who opened earlier or set wider stop-losses at higher levels remain. The previous article’s statement: "The scale of the sweep is larger than the one at $2.87" — today is the first frame of that statement being realized, not the last. LAB +20.48%, ¥6.91 billion volume, shorts dropping from 72.80% to 69.43% — stop-losses are starting to trigger, but it’s localized, not comprehensive. The first frame, not the conclusion. $LAB $NOT $DOGS

BTC today $79,459, dropped below $80K. The reason is not complicated: the Strait of Hormuz, fighting has broken out. During the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, clashes occurred—Iran accused the US of attacking Iranian ships, Trump said the ceasefire is "still in effect." The Strait of Hormuz is currently closed, about 20% of the world's oil passes through here, and now it's blocked. For every day this strait is closed, oil prices rise for a day. Oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise, risk assets fall. BTC didn't drop below $80K because "something happened in the crypto world"—it's because something happened in the world. Gold is rising today (up 18% in the past 6 months), BTC is falling—this is the classic "when geopolitical risk occurs, old money runs into gold, new money hasn't decided where to go yet" divergence. Fear & Greed index at 38 (Fear), the first time entering the fear zone since this series started tracking. But in the futures market, the proportion of accounts long on BTC rose to 43% today—the highest value since this series started tracking. Hormuz is closed, retail investors are scared, but some are quietly going long at $79,000.

Today, it moved. Fear & Greed: 38 (Fear) From 47 to 38 overnight, the market sentiment shifted from "neutral" to "fear." BTC today is $79,591, dropping below $80,000. This is the first time since this series started tracking BTC that the price has been recorded below $80,000. But on the same day, CoinShares released its latest report: Fund managers are increasing their positions. Institutional investors are gradually raising their allocation to crypto assets, with BTC being the preferred choice for institutional allocation, and the net inflow trend is improving. On one side, retail investors are fearful. On the other side, institutions are buying. This situation has appeared before in this series—but today the divergence is the clearest. Fear & Greed at 38 (retail sentiment) and the institutional accumulation report (institutional behavior) appear on the same day, pointing in completely opposite directions. But there is one contract data point that quantifies this divergence more concretely: BTC long ratio (latest three 4-hour periods): 41.44% → 42.69% → 43.07% Last night, this series noted the long ratio at 39.56% as the highest so far—today, within three periods, it rose continuously from 39.56% to 43.07%, an all-time high since this series began tracking BTC. In other words: during BTC’s drop from $80,400 to $79,591, the proportion of long positions in the contract market didn’t decrease but increased steadily from 39.56% to 43.07%. "Fear" is the reading of the Fear & Greed Index. "More longs despite the drop" is the behavior in the contract market. Both things are true simultaneously: sentiment is worsening, but the number of longs is increasing. There is only one explanation for this contradiction: The group feeling fear now mostly hasn’t opened short positions in the contract market—they are cautious retail investors, holding spot positions at a loss, watching the price fall but taking no action. Meanwhile, the group increasing longs in the contract market despite the drop is different: they are not unafraid; they believe this price level is worth betting on. The funding rate turned negative today: -0.000015 Yesterday it was +0.000036, today -0.000015—the periods where longs paid have ended, and now shorts are paying again. But the magnitude of -0.000015 is extremely slight (annualized about 1.64%)—this is not a signal of a large-scale short return, but rather that longs and shorts have just reached a new equilibrium around the $79,500-$80,000 range. Fear & Greed at 38, BTC dropping below $80K, but contract longs at 43.07% hitting a series high, and institutional reports showing accumulation—when sentiment is most fearful, it’s when the most people are quietly going long. $BTC

This series wrote about BILL yesterday, with a sentence: "BILL Phase 1 bulls at 68.74%, the highest value tracked in this series." Today, a new asset enters this series—ETH. Latest bull-bear ratio: 71.93% bulls / 28.07% bears 68.74% has been surpassed. Listing all assets tracked in this series by bull ratio from low to high: LAB latest: 27.20% bulls (series lowest) BTC latest: 39.56% bulls ZEC: about 38-40% bulls TON: 51.87% bulls DOGS: about 55% bulls NOT: 65.50% bulls BILL Phase 1: 68.74% bulls (series extreme value yesterday) ETH latest: 71.93% bulls (new extreme today) From LAB's 27.20% to ETH's 71.93%, these are the full ends of this coordinate axis. But today's 71.93% has a background different from all predecessors: When NOT was 65.50% bulls, NOT UTC intraday +14.20%. When BILL was 68.74% bulls, BILL UTC intraday +16.04%. When TON was 51.87% bulls, TON UTC intraday +9.92%. Today ETH is 71.93% bulls—ETH UTC intraday -2.62%. This is the first time in this series that the asset with the highest bull ratio has a downward price direction. Previously, high bull ratios occurred under the background of "price rising, bulls winning." Today's 71.93% for ETH accumulated during the price drop from $2,351.11 (UTC open) to $2,289.49. The full 10-phase bull-bear ratio arc quantifies this clearly: Phase 1: 60.80% bulls (ETH price about $2,371) Phase 5: 66.05% bulls (stage low range, about $2,350) Phase 10 (latest): 71.93% bulls (ETH current price $2,289) In each phase, price falls while bull ratio rises—this is a typical "buying the dip" structure. From Phase 1 to the latest, bull ratio rose by 11.13 percentage points, the largest 10-phase bull ratio increase tracked in this series. These bulls entering during the price decline judge that ETH falling to the $2,280-$2,350 range is a worthwhile entry point. Funding rate +0.0001 (annualized about 10.95%)—these bulls pay shorts every 8 hours. They consider this cost less than the opportunity cost of missing a rebound at $2,289. But a mirrored risk must be noted here: This series wrote in the DOGS article: "Bears at 51.52% surpassed bulls for the first time—they bet on the top and lost." Today ETH is 71.93% bulls, they bet on the bottom—if the price continues downward, these bulls face the same structural exit pressure, just in the opposite direction. ETH bulls at 71.93%, a new series extreme, surpassing yesterday's BILL at 68.74%. But this is the first time in the series that the highest bull ratio appears amid a price decline—buying the dip, bull ratio rose 11.13 percentage points over 10 phases, with an annualized 10.95% funding rate ticking. $ETH $TON $BILL