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⚠️ April Nonfarm Payrolls to be released tonight at 20:30 The market expects 62,000 new jobs added in April, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, and annual wage inflation rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. The numbers are low—but when interpreting this data, there is a new benchmark you must know. 🔍 Quick science: How to judge the "strength" of Nonfarm Payroll data? Traditional standard: Monthly increases below 100,000 are usually seen as a sign of labor market weakness. However, Fed official Logan previously stated publicly that currently, about 30,000 new jobs per month can achieve supply-demand balance—the benchmark has shifted. This means the expected 62,000 tonight is not actually a "collapse" under the new framework, but rather "weak but still acceptable." So the most important thing tonight is not the number itself, but its distance from the 30,000 and 100,000 lines. 📌 What to focus on tonight? ❶ Employment numbers: Above 100,000 → Strong employment, rate cut expectations pushed further out, USD strengthens, BTC under pressure Between 60,000–100,000 → In line with expectations, limited market volatility, status quo maintained Below 30,000 → Below Logan's "balance line," recession expectations rise, Fed forced to reassess, rate cut expectations quickly rebound ❷ Wage inflation: If the annual wage rate truly rises to 3.8% → Inflation pressure reignites → Even with weak employment, the Fed will find it hard to cut rates easily, deepening the dilemma 📊 How low are current rate cut expectations? 🔻 According to CME FedWatch data: Probability of a 25bp cut in June: only 5.2%; Probability of no cuts this year: 72.6% ⬇️ The rate cut window is at a recent low; tonight's data is the most important short-term repricing opportunity. What do you think will happen with Nonfarm Payrolls tonight?

#CLARITY Act: Finalized Stablecoin Yield Rules https://oyidl.me/ul/7lcuEOe 🌸 Following the finalization of the stablecoin yield rules a few days ago, things are progressing much faster than expected. This week, talks have already started about the bill entering committee next week. U.S. crypto legislation is visibly shifting from "discussion" to "execution." ⏰ Latest progress timeline: 🔹 Early May: Coinbase policy head announced a compromise with the Senate on the core dispute over stablecoin yields, officially restarting the bill 🔹 Consensus Miami: White House digital asset advisor Patrick Witt set July 4 as the target for House passage 🔹 Latest: Coinbase executives revealed the bill could enter the Senate Banking Committee markup as early as next week 🔹 Meanwhile: Brazil's central bank announced a ban on stablecoins for cross-border payment settlements starting October 1 🔍 Quick explainer: What is Markup? Markup is a key step in the U.S. legislative process—committee members review and amend the bill line by line, then vote on whether to send it to the full chamber for a vote. Entering markup means the bill has passed preliminary review and is officially in the legislative sprint phase. Reaching this stage usually means the sponsors have confirmed enough votes to support it. 📌 Three perspectives on this acceleration ❶ The July 4 target is no coincidence Independence Day carries full symbolic weight—the White House team setting this date as a goal is itself a political statement: crypto legislation is a priority agenda for this administration, not just talk. From "markup next week" to "House passage by July 4," the Senate’s review window is actually quite tight, meaning all parties are pushing under high pressure. ❷ Coinbase’s compromise solved the toughest issue Previously, the stablecoin yield clause was the biggest sticking point—the banking system feared stablecoins would become shadow deposits, siphoning off savings. Coinbase reaching a compromise with the Senate on this shows stakeholders have found a coexistence boundary. The bill’s restart is backed by genuine political consensus, not forced progress. ❸ Brazil’s ban vs. U.S. framework: global stablecoin regulation is splitting The U.S. chose "drawing red lines, building frameworks, and providing compliance pathways"; Brazil chose "directly banning cross-border settlements." Both approaches are being implemented this year, meaning stablecoin projects must choose between different jurisdictions. Compliance-focused stablecoins like USDC benefit under the U.S. framework; while stablecoin protocols targeting global cross-border settlements will face an increasingly fragmented regulatory environment. 💬 Do you think the CLARITY Act will pass before July 4? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments ⬇️#CLARITY法案最早下周进入审议

#Saylor plans to sell BTC to pay dividends 🌸 Saylor is about to sell coins: the six-year "never sell" belief is loosened for the first time. ☄️ Three key figures in this earnings report: 🔸 Holdings: 818,334 BTC · Average price: $75,537 · Q1 net loss: $12.5 billion 🔸 Main reason for selling: STRC preferred stock dividends + debt interest, with an annual fixed expenditure of about $1.5 billion; additional logic: selling can unlock $2.2 billion in tax savings. CEO Phong Le also confirmed that selling BTC for USD to manage debt is not ruled out. 🔸 This is the first official loosening of Strategy’s stance in six years. 🔍 Quick explanation: What is STRC preferred stock? Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) issued various preferred stocks to continuously finance BTC purchases, and STRC is one of them. Preferred stockholders enjoy fixed dividend priority—dividends must be paid on time regardless of company profits. If the company lacks cash, theoretically assets can be liquidated to fulfill obligations. The $1.5 billion annual burden Saylor mentioned is the accumulated result of these fixed obligations. 📌 How to view this "loosening" ❶ "Never sell" has shifted from belief to financial constraint As Strategy continues issuing preferred stock financing, fixed liabilities grow heavier—$1.5 billion/year in rigid expenses. This loosening is not a voluntary change of belief but forced by the balance sheet. ❷ $2.2 billion tax savings is the real catalyst Strategy may use a "sell and buy back" operation to convert unrealized losses on the books into actual tax-deductible losses while resetting the holding cost—this is a legal tax optimization under U.S. tax law. In other words, this sale might be a carefully designed financial maneuver rather than a true liquidation. ❸ Market impact: panic first, logic later 818,334 BTC holdings—selling even 1% means 8,000 BTC, which is substantial short-term market pressure. But if the sale is for a "sell and buy back" tax reset, the actual net outflow may be much less than the market imagines. 🎯 Impact on the crypto market ✅ Short term: emotional shock leads ✅ Medium term: actual selling pressure may be limited ✅ Long term: chain reactions warrant caution 💬 What do you think about Saylor’s "loosening" this time? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your judgment in the comments ⬇️

#BTC Hits New Highs Alongside US Stocks: Institutional Landscape Rewritten 🌸 On May 5th, several "firsts in many years" were refreshed — BTC, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all reached new highs on the same day. The last time we saw such a scene was in 2021. It’s no longer just "crypto following the rise"; this is crypto sharing the historical stage with US stocks. 🔺 BTC broke $81,286**, reaching a new high since January 2026 🔺 S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closed at historical highs on the same day, marking the first time since 2021 that all three indices broke through simultaneously. 🔺 Strategy holds 815,061 BTC, officially surpassing BlackRock's IBIT with about 814,000 BTC, becoming the world's largest single institutional holder of BTC 🔺 April's spot ETF monthly net inflow reached $2.44 billion, setting a new record for the strongest single month of the year 🔺 The probability of the CLARITY Act passing jumped from 46% to 64% 🔺 The earnings season for the Magnificent 7 exceeded expectations, and the FOMC's hawkish signals have been digested 📌 Three Perspectives on This "Simultaneous High" ❶ The correlation between BTC and US stocks has evolved from "following the drop" to "rising together" Over the past two years, the market has gotten used to the logic of "when US stocks drop, BTC drops first." But this time, four assets reached new highs on the same day — BTC's position in institutional allocations has fundamentally changed: it is no longer just a high-risk hedging tool, but one of the standard positions when risk appetite rises. With this step completed, the narrative has completely changed. ❷ Strategy surpassing IBIT is more significant than the numbers themselves 815,061 vs 814,000, the difference is just over a thousand, but the significance is: Saylor has pushed the world's largest asset management company's ETF down to second place using corporate balance sheets. The route of direct corporate holdings is forming real competition with the ETF route. The institutional BTC landscape is no longer an era of "just buy ETFs." ❸ The probability of the CLARITY Act jumped from 46% to 64%, accelerating legislation A short-term jump of 18 percentage points usually indicates substantial progress. Regulatory clarity + record high institutional holdings + record ETF inflows, these three signals resonate in the same direction, indicating a structural change, not just emotional. 🎯 Impact on the Crypto Market BTC hitting new highs alongside US stocks → Institutional risk appetite opens up → Funds concentrate on high liquidity assets → BTC siphoning effect strengthens, altcoins pressured in the short term Strategy surpassing IBIT → Corporate holding model validated by the market → More listed companies follow suit → BTC supply side continues to tighten Legislation probability jumps → Compliance framework accelerates formation → New institutional entry barriers lowered → Medium to long-term capital inflow increases 💬 After the non-farm payroll data comes out on May 8th, how do you think BTC will move? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your judgment in the comments ⬇️ PS: For more terminology explanations, see image one.

#CLARITY Act: Finalized Rules for Stablecoin Earnings 🌸 Finally, the wait is over. The stablecoin earnings dispute that has troubled Congress for over two years now has an official answer — it’s not a complete ban, but rather a subtle line has been drawn. On one side of the line is legal, and on the other side is illegal, and this line directly determines the life and death of DeFi and stablecoin issuers. ‼️ The core of the rules is just two sentences: ❌ Prohibited: Paying interest on deposits solely for "holding stablecoins" ✅ Allowed: Rewards linked to "real transactions or activities" (similar to credit card points) The compromise plan is expected to be submitted for formal review by the Senate Banking Committee in mid-May. 🔍 A little explanation: Why is there such a big difference between "interest" and "rewards"? Under banking law, "deposit interest" is strictly regulated — if stablecoins are classified as "substitutes for deposits that pay interest," the issuer is essentially operating a banking business and must be licensed. However, "transaction rewards" (like credit card points) do not fall under interest, and their legal nature is completely different. Once this line is drawn, stablecoin issuers just need to avoid directly saying "holding earns interest"; by linking rewards to activities, it becomes legal. 📌 Three perspectives on this red line: ❶ For centralized stablecoins (USDC/USDT): Substantial benefits The biggest uncertainty previously was whether stablecoin rebate programs from institutions like Coinbase would be cut off. Now that the rules are clear, "transaction-bound rewards" can continue, as long as they are not directly called "interest." Issuers now have a compliant path, and the structural legislative risk has decreased. ❷ For DeFi protocols: Need to cautiously restructure The on-chain stablecoin staking interest model (where you deposit USDC and the protocol gives you APY) may directly cross the red line — this is a typical form of "holding earns interest." Protocols like Aave and Compound need to reconsider their compliance structures or package earnings as "protocol activity participation rewards." The space for regulatory arbitrage has significantly narrowed. ❸ The timeline for the bill is accelerating, and the uncertainty itself is dissipating Entering the "launch phase" + formal review in mid-May means the probability of passing this year is quite high. For the entire stablecoin sector, having clear rules is itself a benefit — what institutions fear most is not strictness, but uncertainty. 🎯 Impact on the crypto market Rules implemented → Compliance costs for stablecoin issuers become manageable → Expansion of institutional stablecoins like USDC accelerates → The share of dollar stablecoins in global payment scenarios increases DeFi earning models under pressure → Compliance pressure on purely on-chain "holding earns interest" products rises → Funds migrate to regulatory-friendly platforms Smooth progress of the bill → The U.S. crypto legislative framework is basically taking shape → Lower compliance thresholds for institutional entry → Medium to long-term benefits for BTC and mainstream assets 💬 Do you think this line of "interest prohibited but rewards allowed" is reasonable? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments ⬇️

#美联储4月利率决议：罕见4票反对 👀 April 28-29 FOMC decision overview: 🔺 Federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% 🔺 4 dissenting votes, the most since 1992 🔺 Milan: voted for a 25 basis point rate cut (dovish) 🔺 Harker, Kashkari, Logan: retained expressions of easing bias in dissenting statements (hawkish) 🔺 Powell's term expires on May 15, will stay on as a board member; successor Waller awaits Senate confirmation 🔍 Quick Fact: Why are these 4 votes important? Under normal circumstances, FOMC votes are almost always consensus-based, with 1-2 dissenting votes being rare. This time, 4 votes indicate a fundamental disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the current policy path. 📌 Analyzing the "internal rift" ❶ Opposing directions of disagreement mean the market interpretation is extremely difficult. Dovish (Milan) says: It’s time to cut rates; the economy is already under pressure. Hawkish (Harker and others) say: Not even the words "easing bias" should be written; inflation risks are still present. Both sides have their reasons, which makes it even harder for the market to price in—who should we believe? The result is that BTC actually rose, because "staying put" at least ruled out the possibility of a rate hike, and the market interpreted the uncertainty as "temporarily safe." ❷ The countdown to Powell's departure is itself a variable. After May 15, with Waller taking over as chair, will the Fed's policy style change? Waller has a hawkish background, but his first test will be a complex situation with internal division, inflation, and recession expectations coexisting. Will the new official choose to be tough or soothe the market?

#美伊走向长期封锁：外交窗口关闭 🌸 It's not a negotiation breakdown; it's that the diplomatic channel has been completely shut down. The situation between the U.S. and Iran has shifted from a "negotiation deadlock" to a "long-term standoff": Trump has instructed his aides to develop a systematic economic blockade plan against Iran, and all three phases of Iran's diplomatic proposals have been rejected. The U.S. UN representative outright rejected the invitation for a new round of dialogue. The window is completely closed. Core actions: significantly tightening oil export sanctions (Iran loses about $435 million daily), blocking key ports, and the Treasury is specifically targeting Iran's digital channels that evade sanctions through cryptocurrency. WTI crude oil has risen to $102, BTC has dropped to the $76,000 range, and the crypto fear and greed index has fallen to 31 (fear). 🔍 Quick Fact: What is the fear and greed index? It's the "sentiment thermometer" of the crypto market, scoring from 0 to 100. 0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed. A value below 30 usually indicates that market sentiment is nearing a panic bottom—historically, this range often signals a long-term buying opportunity, but it could also continue to decline. 📌 Three key perspectives ❶ The Treasury is specifically targeting cryptocurrency. Previous sanctions mainly focused on traditional financial channels, but this time it explicitly names "cutting off digital evasion paths"—which means stablecoin channels, DEX exchanges, and Iranian-related wallet addresses will face increased on-chain tracking and freezing. This poses additional short-term pressure on crypto market sentiment, but in the long run, it again proves the "value neutrality" of crypto assets: they are tools that everyone wants to use. ❷ Oil price at $102, a new variable for inflation. Oil breaking $100 is a psychological barrier. Energy inflation pressure is rising again → Fed rate cut expectations are pushed back → the dollar strengthens → risk assets come under pressure. This transmission chain has been repeatedly tested this year, and BTC's response to it is becoming more direct. ❸ Fear index at 31, is it time to buy the dip or escape the peak? Historical data shows that when the index falls below 30, it often indicates a mid-to-long-term low point, but the premise is that the macro situation does not continue to worsen. Currently, the three bad news of oil prices, sanctions, and diplomacy are pressing down simultaneously, making it hard to say where the bottom is in the short term. ‼️ The most critical variable: will oil prices stop around $102, or continue to surge towards $110+? Oil prices are currently the most direct single variable determining market rhythm. 💬 BTC has now dropped to $76K, what will you do? A: Buy more, the panic bottom is the right time to enter. B: Wait and see, macro instability means not to act lightly. C: Continue to reduce holdings, feeling like it hasn't hit the bottom yet. 👏🏻 Feel free to share your judgment in the comments ⬇️

# White House Announces Major BTC Reserve Strategy 🌸 This time it's not a rumor; it's the White House itself saying it. At the Bitcoin 2026 conference, Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Digital Asset Advisory Committee, clearly stated: "A major announcement regarding the strategic BTC reserve will be made in the coming weeks." Since the executive order was signed by Trump, the team has been researching expansion mechanisms and legal protections. On the same day, Senator Lummis and Representative Begich jointly reintroduced the BITCOIN bill, renamed the "American Reserve Modernization Act" (ARMA) — planning to purchase 1 million BTC through a budget-neutral strategy within five years and hold it for at least 20 years. Executive action + Congressional legislation, both advancing simultaneously. 📌 Three angles worth paying attention to ❶ "In the coming weeks," this time window is very specific. White House officials have provided a timeline in public, not vague statements — this means the announcement is likely already in preparation, not just wishful thinking. The news in the coming weeks will directly affect market expectations. ❷ The "budget-neutral" strategy of the ARMA bill is a key breakthrough. Previously, the biggest resistance to strategic reserves was the political controversy of "using taxpayer money to buy BTC." "Budget-neutral" means no new fiscal spending — funding may come from selling other assets, gold revaluation, or tariff revenues. This design circumvents the biggest political minefield, thus increasing the probability of legislative passage. ❸ What does 1 million BTC mean? The total supply of BTC is 21 million, so 1 million BTC accounts for about 4.76%. If the U.S. government really executes this, it will become the largest sovereign BTC holder in the world, surpassing the total holdings of all known institutions. The impact on the supply side is self-evident. 🎯 Impact on the crypto market If the ARMA bill progresses smoothly → Legislative endorsement → Institutions follow suit → Sovereign BTC reserves become a global trend. ‼️ The most critical variable: the specific content of the White House's "major announcement" — is it details of the purchase plan, legal framework, or just a reaffirmation of policy direction? The content will determine the magnitude of the market reaction. 💬 Do you think the U.S. strategic BTC reserve will really come to fruition? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments ⬇️

# The nomination of Waller is confirmed: the first Fed chair with crypto holdings 🌸 This is something the crypto community has been waiting for a long time. Senator Thom Tillis, who had been blocking the nomination, announced his support for **Kevin Waller** to become the chair of the Federal Reserve, officially clearing the biggest procedural hurdle. Financial disclosure documents reveal that Waller holds over 30 crypto and Web3 assets, including Solana, dYdX, and Polymarket, through a venture capital fund, with total assets exceeding $192 million. If confirmed, he will be the first Fed chair in history to have held a crypto investment portfolio before taking office. This is no small matter. 📌 Three angles worth watching ❶ What does a Fed chair with crypto holdings mean for the crypto industry? As a rule, assets that present a conflict of interest upon taking office usually need to be divested or placed in an independent trust, with specific arrangements to be confirmed. The real significance lies in the fact that he personally understands crypto assets and will not view them as a threat. The past Fed chairs' attitudes towards crypto have ranged from "not my concern" to "needs strict regulation"; Waller may be the first person who truly understands the field to occupy that position. ❷ That statement during the hearing is worth revisiting. "Digital assets are part of the financial system"—this statement coming from a Fed chair candidate carries a completely different weight. It’s not about pleasing the crypto community; it’s about setting the tone for policy: crypto is not an isolated anomaly that needs to be quarantined, but a financial infrastructure that needs to be managed. ❸ Preference for interest rate tools and advocating for cautious balance sheet reduction—what signal does this send to the market? Interest rate as the primary tool = not in a hurry to reduce liquidity through balance sheet reduction; cautious balance sheet reduction = relatively loose market liquidity. The combination of these two orientations is overall friendly to risk assets, potentially easing liquidity pressure in the crypto market. 🎯 Impact on the crypto market Nomination confirmation → Expectations for crypto-friendly policies rise → Positive market sentiment → Short-term benefits for BTC, SOL, etc. Cautious balance sheet reduction + interest rate tool dominance → Relatively loose liquidity → Mid-term improvement in the environment for risk assets "Digital assets are part of the financial system" sets the tone → Regulatory framework shifts from confrontation to integration → Long-term benefits for compliant sectors 💬 With Waller becoming the Fed chair with crypto holdings, what do you think is the biggest benefit for the crypto market? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments ⬇️

😄 With one hand checking for insider trading, and the other hand is his own son #特朗普点名预测市场：要查内幕押注 📰 Trump publicly stated that he wants to investigate federal officials for insider betting in prediction markets, saying "the whole world is a bit like a casino," claiming he does not support gambling. Before he finished speaking, the media uncovered that Trump's son simultaneously holds shares in Polymarket and serves as an advisor to Kalshi. During the peak of the US-Iran situation, the market cap of related predictions on Polymarket once exceeded $100 million. 👀 The person who wants to investigate insider betting has family members with shares in the prediction market. Regardless of the investigation's outcome, this scenario itself is already hard to justify. Kalshi and Polymarket just announced the launch of perpetual contracts, and then regulation came in. This timing is too subtle; is it a coincidence or a prelude to tightening regulation? 🤔 The investigation is indeed happening, but how deep it goes, or whether it will be just a lot of noise with little action, everyone understands. Let's see how it unfolds.