The core logic of the U.S.-Iran war: 1. The nuclear issue is a dead end: Iran wants "civilian-level" enriched uranium rights, but the United States (especially Israel and Sunni neighbors) will never allow Shiites to embrace nuclear potential. This is the biggest difference in the negotiation, and the beheading of Soleimani was also related to it. 2. The Strait of Hormuz is a chessboard: the United States wants to "co-manage" or blockade, and Iran wants to "pay for traffic". From the perspective of the United States, maintaining Iran's threat to the princes of the Gulf, but it can be controlled, which is most in its interests (receiving protection fees, selling arms, and stabilizing the US dollar). Now Iran wants to develop nuclear weapons, which is equivalent to lifting the table. 3. The military confrontation has escalated: U.S. destroyers entered and exited the strait, and Iran claimed to have issued a 30-minute ultimatum to scare back the U.S. military; Trump has ordered the U.S. military to block the strait and ban Iranian ships from sailing in an attempt to cut off its financial resources. 4. The negotiation was very long: both sides wanted a ceasefire and talked face-to-face for 20 hours, but the differences were too big. This time, it is likely to talk while fighting. Five. There is a noise in the United States: some MAGA Internet celebrities (such as Tucker Carlson) advocate the withdrawal of troops from Iran, and Trump scolded them for this. The fundamental reversal shows that the pressure of war is indeed brewing. 6. Economic impact: The U.S. CPI in March was squeezed by oil prices rising to 3.3%, and optional consumption was squeezed. The Federal Reserve will be more hawkish and short of the capital market. Negotiations have made progress, but they are far from reaching an agreement; the strait will continue to be tense, the capital market will be under pressure, and the nuclear issue is the bottom line.#美伊谈判分歧尖锐，海峡继续封锁 $BTC $ETH $CL